Probability of Occurrence

In addition to visually comparing differences between individual simulations, differences between the models can be demonstarted by displaying the probability a particular indicator will occur at any specific location. The example maps below were developed by combining the results of all 25 realizations into individual indicator probability maps. The differences between using a single zone and two zones was most pronounced with indicators #1 and #5.

Indicator #1

Single Zone Two Zone

Indicator #5

Single Zone Two Zone

From the maps, it can be seen that the single zone realizations do not identify any transition of indicator frequencies accross the site. The distributions are relatively constant. With the two zone realizations, though, there are very distinct differences. Because there is such a high frequency of indicator #1 in the Lyons formation, most cells have a relatively high probability of being indicator #1. For indicator #5, which was quite rare in the Lyons Formation, its probability of occurrence is also low.

June 1996